The typhoon pavilion: typhoon 'absence' in July, or will break the 71 - year - old record?

in previous years, once in summer has been out of the typhoon, where did you go? As of July 29, distance, after a typhoon parrot generated in the northwestern Pacific and south China sea has been silent for more than 40 days.

this July will be recorded history since the first empty units in July? What is the main cause of the typhoon activity inhibition? The typhoon will hide in where to suppress tricks, August will have several typhoons generate? Blue sky studios please to the China Meteorological Administration, specialists for you parse the typhoon absence and future trends.

are expected to have a historical record since 1949, will be for the first time in July this year without typhoon generated

the typhoon activities, there is a significant seasonal characteristics. All the year round in the northwestern Pacific typhoon activity, which in August, the highest frequency on September second and third of July.

and July of this year is very special, the prelude to the typhoon season is not open on schedule. The China Meteorological Administration and Marine meteorological forecast typhoon center senior engineers to pure grace said, according to the forecast results, is expected to typhoon generated less likely on August 1. If still no typhoon generated by 1st August, since this year will be 1949, breaking the record in July first empty years.

according to statistics, the typhoon big data system in 1949 & ndash; In July 2019, a total of 292 typhoon generated, the annual average generated 4 typhoon. 1, typhoons in 132, the average of landing typhoon 1. 9. Among them, the generated typhoon year up to 1967, 1971, 1994, 2017, typhoon number are 8; Generate the typhoon year for at least 1954, 1957, 1985, 1998, the quantity of the typhoon are only one.

this year, only the no. 2 typhoon landed in guangdong yangjiang on June 14, parrot. This year, compared with the historical average, 1 & ndash; July there are two typhoons generate, only 1 more than in 1998, since 1949, seven months before generating the typhoon second year less. This year, compared with the same period history 1 & ndash; Fewer typhoon generated total, July 7.

this typhoon activity in July, is associated with multiple climate factors

in the first place, because of subtropical high by west south, strong typhoon generated.

since late June this year, the subtropical high anomaly by west south, area is large, the intensity is strong. Northwest Pacific and south China sea due to the typhoon generated source controlled by subtropical high, and the range of subtropical high control is given priority to with sinking airflow, the convective activity by a wide range of suppression, the typhoon to generate the necessary condition is restrained.

this unusually strong subtropical high, and the early stage of the northern Indian Ocean to the Pacific northwest area closely related to the anomalous warm SST. And by west south subtropical high position, and upper troposphere related to abnormal by east South Asia high pressure position. South Asia high pressure than the same period for about 10 east longitude.

second, the south China sea monsoon was weaker, is unfavorable to the typhoon.

this summer, in the southern hemisphere Australia Max Lin cold high pressure abnormal weak, in the southern hemisphere as weak cold air activity, southern African continent abnormal high pressure, resulting in abnormal Somali jet strength weak. This makes the cross-equatorial flow as weak anomaly, the south China sea monsoon also unusually weak.

at the same time, in the northern hemisphere subtropical high is unusual, lead to the vast south Pacific northwest and south China sea, is controlled by the strong PianDongFeng, making convergence and monsoon trough is difficult to form the equator. Tropical ocean east of the south China sea and the Philippines convective clouds, also weaker than the same period all the year round, the lack of embryo of typhoon activity. In addition, atmospheric low frequency signal is weak, is not conducive to the northwest Pacific and south China sea the generation of typhoon.

the next 10 days, is expected to have 1 & ndash; Two typhoons generate

in the short term will generate typhoon?

according to the latest numerical model forecast, the early stage of the sustained by south subtropical high is north, then the equator convergence and monsoon trough became active. The next 10 days, the northwest Pacific and south China sea typhoon activity gradually active, is expected to have 1 & ndash; Two typhoons generate, one may affect the southeast coastal areas in China. This period of time, we will pay close attention to the ocean and atmospheric conditions, as well as the evolution of the weather situation, rolling completes the monitoring and forecast of the tropical disturbance, actively do a good job in this year's prevention and disaster mitigation work.

analysis according to the national meteorological center, August is the most frequent typhoon activities in history with an average of 5. 7 the typhoon generated. The largest number generated typhoon in 1960 and 1966, the quantity of the typhoon are for 10. Generate the typhoon is at least 2014, there were a typhoon.

according to the weather forecast, in August of this year, the number of typhoon is being generated over the western north Pacific and south China sea for 4 to 6, slightly less than the same period all the year round. Number of landfalling typhoons for 2 to 3, just slightly more than the same period all the year round.